Gillespie County's median sale price dropped by a fifth in one month, yet the median for the year so far went up. Both numbers come from the same report. In September 2026, the county's residential median sale price was $498,000, down 19.0% from September 2025, according to the Central Hill Country Board of REALTORS monthly market report, which the Texas Real Estate Research Center produces. In that same report, the January-through-September median was $507,395, up 8.4%.
A median shows you the middle sale of whatever closed that month. In September, a larger share of what closed was a different kind of house.
Two markets in one median
The report splits Gillespie County sales into existing homes and new construction. Side by side for September 2026, they look like two separate markets.
| September 2026, Gillespie County | Existing homes | New construction |
|---|---|---|
| Closed sales | 25 | 8 |
| Median sale price | $590,500 | $296,999 |
| Price per square foot | $303 | $189 |
| Median days on market | 157 | 143 |
| Months of inventory | 11.7 | 7.5 |
| Close-to-original-list ratio | 89.4% | 92.2% |
In September, the typical new home sold for about half the price of the typical existing home. New-construction sales rose 60% from the year before, so 8 of the month's 33 sales came from the lower-priced group. Based on the report's own year-over-year percentages, that works out to about 5 of 28 sales in September 2025. New construction went from roughly one sale in six to roughly one in four. Moving that many sales into the half-price group pulls the middle of the whole distribution down, even if no individual house changed value.
The price-per-square-foot figure shows the same thing. The countywide figure fell 26.3% to $275 in September. A drop that steep across a whole county in one month usually reflects a different mix of houses selling. Existing homes closed at $303 a square foot. New construction closed at $189.
The mix doesn't explain the whole drop. The existing-home median also fell 9.1% in September, to $590,500. That figure comes from 25 sales, and the report notes that closed-sale counts for the latest three months are preliminary. For the year through September, the existing-home median was $577,500, up 3.6%, across 306 sales. The larger sample points to a market that has gone flat.
Where the $297,000 homes are coming from
The largest pipeline of new homes advertised near that price sits in a few Fredericksburg subdivisions built by national production builders. The City of Fredericksburg's City Manager's Monthly Update from January 6, 2026 tracks them lot by lot.
Friendship Oaks is the largest. The January update lists 421 proposed lots in phases one through three, with 350 recorded, 200 homes built, permitted, or under construction, and phase three infrastructure underway. Lennar builds there, and the sales address is 100 Aidan Trail. In early November, Lennar was advertising plans from $270,499 to $387,399, ranging from 1,474 to 2,813 square feet. Two examples are the Newlin, a 1,474-square-foot three-bedroom plan, and the Ramsey, a 1,667-square-foot four-bedroom plan.
Trails at Windcrest is the next large one. The city's January update listed 339 proposed lots and an approved PUD, and projected infrastructure construction for early 2026. D.R. Horton now lists the community as selling and markets it the community from 724 Cascade Lane, off Texas Highway 16, about two miles from Main Street. Floor plans start at $334,990 for 1,291 square feet, and the plan menu reaches about $375,000 at 1,816 square feet. The finished homes D.R. Horton listed there in early November were priced from $463,705 to $516,115.
Sonoma Oaks is the third. D.R. Horton lists it as closing out, with homes from $432,990 at 185 Teal St. and a smallest plan of 1,870 square feet. In January, the city counted all 52 phase one lots as recorded and 52 homes built, permitted, or under construction, and it projected phase one completion for spring 2026.
Across every subdivision the city tracks, the January update counted 1,141 proposed lots, 712 recorded, and 407 homes built, permitted, or under construction. At that point, several hundred proposed lots still had no homes on them.
So in any month when more new homes close, the county median will dip, even if nothing changed for an older stone house on a few acres outside Stonewall. The pipeline points the other way as well. New-construction sales for the year through September were 56, down 32.5% from the same stretch of 2025. That's why one strong month for new homes stands out so much.
A lower price per square foot buys a different house
Comparing $189 a square foot with $303 a square foot isn't the same as comparing a sale price with a full price. The two numbers describe different products. The new-construction group is new builds, including the production plans advertised in Fredericksburg's subdivisions. The existing-home group covers everything else in the county, from homes in the historic district to Hill Country houses on acreage. The median existing home sold that month cost about twice as much as the median new home and carried a much higher price per square foot.
For a buyer, the comparison starts with which kind of house fits the plan. A family that wants a three- or four-bedroom home near town with no renovation can look at the Friendship Oaks and Trails at Windcrest plan menus. A buyer who wants land, an older home, or a specific setting is shopping in the existing-home market. In that market, September's countywide median was never the right benchmark. The $590,500 existing-home figure is the better starting point, and $577,500 for the year is better still.
In the existing-home market, the leverage is in the negotiation
Existing homes didn't get much cheaper on paper. They got slower and more negotiable. In September 2026, Gillespie County existing homes had:
- 11.7 months of inventory, with 400 active existing-home listings at the end of the month.
- 157 median days on market. That's more than five months from listing to sale for the typical home.
- An 89.4% close-to-original-list ratio. The typical existing home sold for about 10% below its first asking price, counting price cuts and the final negotiation together.
- A 90.8% ratio for the year through September, so the gap between first asking price and final sale price has been there all year, not just in September.
Countywide, all residential types together showed 459 active listings against 19 pending sales at the end of September.
This is where the September numbers help a buyer. A price that has been sitting for five months and still reflects what the seller first hoped for is usually a starting point. New construction is a little firmer: 92.2% of original list in September and 94.3% for the year, with 7.5 months of inventory.
Sellers should price against existing homes
An owner who reads "prices down 19%" and cuts the asking price to match is reacting to sales of a product they aren't selling. Their competition is the 400 other existing homes on the market and the 89.4% close-to-original-list ratio. A first price set close to what the market will pay means fewer of those 157 days on market go by before the first serious offer.
The production subdivisions matter in a narrower way. A smaller, newer-feeling house near town now competes with brand-new three- and four-bedroom plans advertised from about $270,000 at Friendship Oaks and about $335,000 at Trails of Windcrest. For that kind of listing, the asking price needs to account for what makes it different, whether that's location, lot size, or character that a production plan can't offer.
Reading the next monthly report
The October report will put out a new countywide median, and it may swing again. Checking these four figures, in this order, gives a clearer picture than the headline:
- How many sales were new construction. If the share rose or fell sharply, the countywide median will move with it.
- The existing-home median, next to its year-to-date figure. One month of about 25 sales is noisy. The year-to-date number is the steadier signal.
- The close-to-original-list ratio. As long as it stays around 90%, the gap between asking price and sale price is still there.
- Months of inventory. A figure near a year means buyers still have time to negotiate. If it shrinks, that window closes.
Plenty of homes in Gillespie County will sell this winter at prices close to where they were a year ago. The number that changed most is how far first asking prices sit from where homes actually close.
If you're comparing a new plan in Fredericksburg with an older house on land and want to know what each one is likely to cost by closing, Reata Ranch Realty can go through the latest Gillespie County numbers with you for the specific homes you're considering.
